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911十年祭 (附英中对照)

《金融时报 》2011-09-08 22:41

作者:英国《金融时报》总编辑 莱昂内尔•巴贝尔

   ft2001年9月11日早晨,美国的前景看起来就像纽约曼哈顿下城区的天空一样蔚蓝清澈、一片光明。当时,布伦特(Brent)原油价格仅为每桶28 美元,美国联邦政府的预算还处于盈余状态,而经历了互联网泡沫危机的美国经济刚开始复苏(尽管迹象不那么明显)。这个地球上最强大的国家看上去一切风平浪 静。

  10年过去了,目前油价徘徊在每桶115美元附近,预计美国2011年预算赤字将高达1.58万亿美元,为历史最高水平;在2008年的金融危 机之后,美国经济仍深陷困境;而美国军队和情报部门仍处于战时状态,从阿富汗、巴基斯坦到尼日尔和也门,满世界打击叛乱和激进的伊斯兰恐怖主义。

即将卸任的美国参谋长联席会议(US Joint Chiefs of Staff)主席、海军上将威廉•马伦(Admiral William Mullen)曾将美国的债务描述为对国家安全的头号威胁。标准普尔(S&P)最近下调美国信用评级,似乎证明了这个超级大国正不断衰落。而尽管 从2001年9月到美国目前的经济困境之间,并不存在什么“线性叙事”,但美国在9.11之后发动的“全球反恐战争”的成本(经通胀因素调整后)已超过2 万亿美元,相当于打了两次越战。

  911小布什总统(George W. Bush)对于双子塔和五角大楼被撞的回应,就是针对阿富汗和伊拉克发动了两场不必要的战争——这种无视同盟关系、并践踏国际法的行为,是一种好战的单边 主义——并像传教士一样,在中东宣扬自由民主。小布什政府的强硬政策破坏了美国与欧洲盟友之间的关系,并导致美国的国际声望直线下跌。

  从积极的方面来看,美国本土迄今再也没有遭遇恐怖主义袭击。而其它国家就没这么幸运了。发生在巴厘岛(2002年)、马德里(2004年)和伦 敦(2005 年)的爆炸事件,虽然从规模来讲都无法与9.11相提并论,但同样夺去了数百人的生命。基地组织已开始走下坡路,但并没未完全被铲除。从基地组织领导人奥 萨马•本•拉登(Osama bin Laden)在巴基斯坦阿伯塔巴德市(Abbottabad)的藏身之处发现的数十张电脑光盘显示,本•拉登在被击毙前正计划发动又一次大规模袭击,很可 能就在本周末的9.11纪念日当天——本•拉登在今年5月美国海豹突击队(Navy Seals)展开的一次大胆突袭行动中被击毙。

  911bush此外,今年阿拉伯世界的觉醒改变了人们的一个观念:即除以色列以外的中东地区民众天生排斥民主。从突尼斯的宰因•阿比丁•本•阿里(Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali)到埃及的胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak),该地区的独裁者们一个接一个地被要求尊严、自由和就业机会的抗议者们推翻。诚然,推翻利比亚穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的反对派军队,得到了北约(Nato)战斗机的援助;但叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)或许将是下一位感受到阿拉伯街头民众怒火的领导人。

  可问题在于,饱受指摘的布什宣称,中东的独裁现状催生了伊斯兰极端恐怖主义,由此对美国构成了迫在眉睫的威胁,这种说法是否正确。如果正确的话,那么小布什政府的过失就会更多地归咎于执行问题,而不是判断失误。

  第二个相关问题是,在新兴大国(尤其是中国)的崛起正重塑全球格局之际,小布什政府选择诉诸武力来回应9.11事件,是不是一种代价高昂、且不够合理的注意力和资源转移?

  9.11事件过后,一种类似于1815年、1945年或1989年的地缘政治同盟格局似乎开始形成。在美国召集的反恐同盟中,除了包括俄罗斯和中国等竞争对手之外,还包括古巴、伊朗和苏丹等以往一直被歧视的国家。

  军事打击同样有效。在确定了罪魁祸首后,美国发动了一场精彩的军事打击,推翻了阿富汗的塔利班政权。美国特种部队、势不可挡的空中力量以及当地 军阀多管齐下,在数周内就推翻了塔利班政权。尽管以毛拉•奥马尔(Mullah Omar)和他的代言人本•拉登为首的领导人均得以逃脱,但基地组织网络遭到了无情的打击和破坏。

  911-fire但不出一年,美国就失去了道德高地。布什的失误在于让人们看清楚:伊拉克的政权更迭,只是布什用以对付被他列为“邪恶轴心国家”(包括伊朗、朝鲜以及其它窝藏或资助恐怖分子的敌对国家)的一个步骤。转眼间,美国自己也被视为一个流氓国家。

  美国2002年颁布的《国家安全法案修正案》引发了各界担忧。该法案摒弃了冷战时期的遏制和威慑战略,取而代之的是一种“先发制人”的战略。根 据新战略,美国可以先发制人地采取军事行动,推翻政权,并允许在战争中使用酷刑,并否认《日内瓦公约》(Geneva Convention)赋予恐怖分子嫌犯的权力。

  因此,伊拉克战争未能得到加拿大、法国和德国等传统盟友的支持;没有联合国安理会(UN Security Council)的支持;也未能找到确凿的证据,证明萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)拥有对美国安全构成直接威胁的大规模杀伤性武器。至于盟友,当时的英国首相托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)给予了布什忠诚的政治援助,不过时任美国国防部长唐纳德•拉姆斯菲尔德(Donald Rumsfeld)令人难堪地宣称:从军事角度讲,英国军队纯属多余。

  北约的影响力同样也有所削弱——9.11事件后,北约首次援引第五条款,要求所有成员国承担起集体防御的义务。美国政府的格言是“任务决定同 盟”。但有选择性的同盟关系是一把双刃剑。临近2010年之际,欧洲盟国们开始引用限制性条款,表示不插手阿富汗、伊拉克和利比亚的军事行动。为此,即将 卸任的现任美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨(Robert Gates)今年警告称,北约正迅速变得无关紧要。

  911-plane2欧洲的声望也同样大幅下降,而这不仅仅体现在利比亚冲突期间——其间,德国选择置身事外,而英法两国在短短几周内就打光了弹药。本世纪之初,带 着成功推出一个新货币联盟的喜悦,欧洲领导人就创立旨在让欧盟发展成为全球最具竞争力的经济区的《里斯本议程》达成了一致。事后看来,备受吹捧的里斯本议 程标志着欧洲雄心的极限高度,而时间恰恰赶上了互联网泡沫的破裂。

  10年过去了,事实已经表明,欧洲货币联盟(European Monetary Union)最初的设计上就存在根本性缺陷。包括德国在内的大小成员国,都无视预算纪律的实施机制;而希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙等外围经济体,凭借低 利率而实现了急剧增长,却一直存在缺乏竞争力的问题。眼下,债券市场危机有可能蔓延到欧元区“核心”成员意大利。

  到了布什的第二任期,强硬的措辞转变为一种更为温和的方式。作为阿富汗和伊拉克的占领军,美国陷入了拉姆斯菲尔德长期以来嗤之以鼻的国家建设 中。美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)也同样糊里糊涂,宣称在上述两国(或其中一国)的使命在军事上至关重要,然后表现得好像自己有权任意处置一样,制定了撤军的(政治)时间 表。

  经通胀因素调整后,在阿富汗和伊拉克的军费开支总计接近2万亿美元;但世界银行(World Bank)行长罗伯特•佐立克(Robert Zoellick)和一位前美国副国务卿认为,像美国这样富有的国家完全承担得起。佐立克称,在1948年,美国人均国民生产总值仅为目前的四分之一。但 美国民众积极支持时任总统杜鲁门(Truman)的主张,即资助欧洲的民主运动,以及在全球范围内抗击共产主义,为此付出的金额高达数十亿美元。

  911-empirebuilding民主改革的种子能否在伊拉克生根发芽,是一个更值得讨论的问题。美军自诩凭借“大举增兵”把伊拉克从动荡甚至分裂中拯救出来,但伊拉克宗教派系 —— 库尔德人(Kurds)、逊尼派(Sunnis)和占多数的什叶派(Shia)——之间的关系仍然摇摆不定。或许,萨达姆•侯赛因的倒台使伊朗成为了地区 霸主,并通过巴格达的什叶派政府施加影响力。同时,德黑兰方面的核野心仍未受到遏制。

  对于威胁到地区稳定的另一个悬而未决的严重问题,9.11事件也未能促成其解决:巴以冲突。布什和奥巴马都未能打破被占领的加沙及约旦河西岸地 区的僵局,也没能解决耶路撒冷的地位问题。从阿里埃勒•沙龙(Ariel Sharon)到本杰明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)的一系列以色列总理,都利用这场反恐战争谋求自己的利益,声称妥协会危害以色列的安全,而哈马斯(Hamas)这样的组织,是伪装成 巴勒斯坦人民合法代表的恐怖主义分子。哈马斯在2005年选举中轻松胜出。

  虽然重点放在打击恐怖主义,但美国对更广泛的地缘政治趋势也保持着警惕。最重要的突破,是美国和印度在2008年签订了关于民用核合作的 “123” 协议。华盛顿和新德里之间的新战略伙伴关系不但可以制衡中国的崛起,也可以制衡拥有核武器的巴基斯坦,后者是美国长期以来在南亚的盟友,但已经变得越来越 难以掌控。

  相比之下,中美关系只能算是一种不那么舒服的互相容忍。北京方面(顶多)把华盛顿看作“非敌非友”,美国则大梦初醒地意识到,中国在太平洋地区 对其主宰地位构成了挑战。北京方面对拥有核武器的阴沉邻国——朝鲜——不情不愿地施加压力,但同时对民族主义热情颇高,这表明中国领导人对台湾问题仍耿耿 于怀,并且在与日本、韩国和越南等过的领土争端中极度敏感。

  911-liberty说到最后,过去10年地缘政治方面最重要的进展并非发生在战场上,而是发生在金融体系中。全球银行业危机的起因,是监管存在漏洞,银行遏制不住 向不具备偿还能力的美国穷人发放抵押贷款的冲动,以及金融系统中杠杆泛滥。一定程度上,这些扭曲现象是由全球发展失衡所导致的,而美国人靠低成本举债生 活、中国出口商和储户促成巨额经常账户盈余,正是这种失衡背后的驱动因素。

  直到2008年大崩盘(Great Crash)之前,这架金融旋转木马都在毫无顾忌地转动着。凭借其廉价的劳动力,中国向世界其他国家输出了通缩。中国用经常账户盈余购买美国国债,以这种 方式为美国的经常账户赤字提供融资。目前,距离金融危机爆发已经三年,全球经济发生了天翻地覆的变化。美国经济走上了下坡路,欧洲丧失了“比赛资格”,而 亚洲则暂时处于上升趋势。

  我们不妨看一看更广泛的历史趋势。以购买力平价衡量,发展中亚洲占全球经济的份额,已经从1980年的8%稳步升至去年的24%。加总起来,亚 洲股市占全球股市市值的31%,高于欧洲的25%,与美国的32%仅一步之遥。去年,中国取代德国成为全球最大出口国。以市值衡量,中资银行位居全球最大 银行之列。

  进口数据同样说明问题:发展中国家正成为全球经济的驱动器。从水泥到鸡蛋,中国的消费量都位居世界前列;中国还刚刚取代美国、成为全球最大的汽车市场。

  911-b中国对各种商品的巨大胃口,正创造出新的贸易线路,尤其是和巴西这样的新兴大国。去年,中国超过美国,成为巴西最大的贸易伙伴。拉丁美洲曾以不稳定而闻名,但在此次危机中却毫发未损。目前该地区贫困率不断下降,中产阶级日渐扩大,资产市场也蒸蒸日上。

  布什的国家安全顾问及国务卿康多莉扎•赖斯(Condoleezza Rice)曾把多极化称之为竞争理论,指其为必然的灾祸。从经济角度看,多极化意味着一种新秩序,在这种秩序中,相互依存成为基本原则,而美国尽管仍占据压倒性的优势,却不再享有霸权。

  在谈到9.11事件的遗产时,渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)首席经济学家杰拉德•莱昂斯(Gerard Lyons)认为,过去10年最重要的词汇不是“反恐战争”,而是“中国制造”。谈到当前的趋势,他补充表示,未来10年最重要的词汇将是“中国所有”。

911-flag911-laser911-01

911-tattoo911-sign911-bastard

911-laser

9·11十年祭:美国霸权的终结
The end of hegemony

作者:英国《金融时报》总编辑 莱昂内尔•巴贝尔 By Lionel Barber
 

911On the morning of September 11, 2001, America’s prospects appeared as bright as the clear blue sky over Lower Manhattan. The price of Brent crude oil was $28 a barrel, the Federal government was running a budget surplus, the US economy was turning (albeit imperceptibly) after the dotcom crash. The most powerful nation on earth was at peace.

2001年9月11日早晨,美国的前景看起来就像纽约曼哈顿下城区的天空一样蔚蓝清澈、一片光明。当时,布伦特(Brent)原油价格仅为每桶28美元,美国联邦政府的预算还处于盈余状态,而经历了互联网泡沫危机的美国经济刚开始复苏(尽管迹象不那么明显)。这个地球上最强大的国家看上去一切风平浪静。

Ten years on, the oil price hovers around $115 a barrel, the US is projected to run a budget deficit for 2011 of $1,580bn, the largest in its history; the economy remains deeply troubled after the financial crash of 2008; and America’s military and intelligence services remain at war, battling insurgency and radical Islamic terrorism, from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Niger and Yemen.

10年过去了,目前油价徘徊在每桶115美元附近,预计美国2011年预算赤字将高达1.58万亿美元,为历史最高水平;在2008年的金融危机之后,美国经济仍深陷困境;而美国军队和情报部门仍处于战时状态,从阿富汗、巴基斯坦到尼日尔和也门,满世界打击叛乱和激进的伊斯兰恐怖主义。

Admiral William Mullen, outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has described the national debt as the greatest threat to US national security. Standard & Poor’s recent downgrade of America’s credit rating appears to confirm the superpower’s steady slippage. And while there is no linear narrative from the September 2001 attacks to America’s present economic plight, the inflation-adjusted cost of the ensuing “global war on terror” at more than $2,000bn amounts to twice the cost of the Vietnam war.

即将卸任的美国参谋长联席会议(US Joint Chiefs of Staff)主席、海军上将威廉•马伦(Admiral William Mullen)曾将美国的债务描述为对国家安全的头号威胁。标准普尔(S&P)最近下调美国信用评级,似乎证明了这个超级大国正不断衰落。而尽管从2001年9月到美国目前的经济困境之间,并不存在什么“线性叙事”,但美国在9.11之后发动的“全球反恐战争”的成本(经通胀因素调整后)已超过2万亿美元,相当于打了两次越战。

President George W. Bush’s response to the assault on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon was to launch two wars of choice against Afghanistan and Iraq, a pugnacious unilateralism at the expense of alliances and international law, and a near evangelical promotion of liberal democracy in the Middle East. His administration’s hard-edged policies fractured alliances in Europe and triggered a sharp fall in America’s standing abroad.

小布什总统(George W. Bush)对于双子塔和五角大楼被撞的回应,就是针对阿富汗和伊拉克发动了两场不必要的战争——这种无视同盟关系、并践踏国际法的行为,是一种好战的单边主义——并像传教士一样,在中东宣扬自由民主。小布什政府的强硬政策破坏了美国与欧洲盟友之间的关系,并导致美国的国际声望直线下跌。

On the positive side of the ledger, America has so far escaped another terrorist attack on its own soil. Others have not been so fortunate. The bombings in Bali (2002), Madrid (2004), and London (2005) did not match the scale of September 11, but they claimed several hundred victims. Al-Qaeda is down but not entirely out. Dozens of computer disks recovered from Osama bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, suggest the al-Qaeda leader, killed last May during a daring raid by US Navy Seals, was planning another spectacular outrage, perhaps to coincide with the September 11 anniversary this weekend.

从积极的方面来看,美国本土迄今再也没有遭遇恐怖主义袭击。而其它国家就没这么幸运了。发生在巴厘岛(2002年)、马德里(2004年)和伦敦(2005年)的爆炸事件,虽然从规模来讲都无法与9.11相提并论,但同样夺去了数百人的生命。基地组织已开始走下坡路,但并没未完全被铲除。从基地组织领导人奥萨马•本•拉登(Osama bin Laden)在巴基斯坦阿伯塔巴德市(Abbottabad)的藏身之处发现的数十张电脑光盘显示,本•拉登在被击毙前正计划发动又一次大规模袭击,很可能就在本周末的9.11纪念日当天——本•拉登在今年5月美国海豹突击队(Navy Seals)展开的一次大胆突袭行动中被击毙。

Moreover, this year’s Arab awakening has dispelled the notion that the Middle East – with the exception of Israel – is congenitally incapable of embracing democracy, One by one, the region’s autocrats, from Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia to Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, have been toppled by protesters demanding dignity, freedom and jobs. True, the fall of Muammer Gaddhafi in Libya was precipitated by armed rebellions assisted by Nato warplanes; but President Bashar al-Assad of Syria may be the next leader to feel the hot breath of the Arab street.

此外,今年阿拉伯世界的觉醒改变了人们的一个观念:即除以色列以外的中东地区民众天生排斥民主。从突尼斯的宰因•阿比丁•本•阿里(Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali)到埃及的胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak),该地区的独裁者们一个接一个地被要求尊严、自由和就业机会的抗议者们推翻。诚然,推翻利比亚穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的反对派军队,得到了北约(Nato)战斗机的援助;但叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)或许将是下一位感受到阿拉伯街头民众怒火的领导人。

The question is whether the much-maligned Mr Bush was correct in arguing that the autocratic status quo in the Middle East created an incubator for radical Islamic terrorism and consequently a clear and present danger to the US. If the answer is yes, then his administration’s failings were due less to a flawed diagnosis and more to a matter of execution.

可问题在于,饱受指摘的布什宣称,中东的独裁现状催生了伊斯兰极端恐怖主义,由此对美国构成了迫在眉睫的威胁,这种说法是否正确。如果正确的话,那么小布什政府的过失就会更多地归咎于执行问题,而不是判断失误。

A second related question is whether the administration’s military response to September 11 amounted to a costly and disproportionate diversion of attention and resources at a time when the world was being reshaped by the rise of powerful new actors, notably China?

第二个相关问题是,在新兴大国(尤其是中国)的崛起正重塑全球格局之际,小布什政府选择诉诸武力来回应9.11事件,是不是一种代价高昂、且不够合理的注意力和资源转移?

In the aftermath of the attack on the Twin Towers, a geopolitical alignment comparable to those of 1815, 1945 or 1989 appeared to take shape. The US mustered a coalition against terrorism that included rivals such as Russia and China, as well as one-time pariahs such as Cuba, Iran and Sudan.

9.11事件过后,一种类似于1815年、1945年或1989年的地缘政治同盟格局似乎开始形成。在美国召集的反恐同盟中,除了包括俄罗斯和中国等竞争对手之外,还包括古巴、伊朗和苏丹等以往一直被歧视的国家。

The military response was equally effective. Having identified the perpetrators, the US staged a brilliant improvised campaign to topple the Taliban in Afghanistan. US special forces combined with warlords and overwhelming air-power to break the Kabul regime within weeks. Although the leaders, notably Mullah Omar and his proxy Bin-Laden, slipped away, the al-Qaeda network was relentlessly targeted and disrupted.

军事打击同样有效。在确定了罪魁祸首后,美国发动了一场精彩的军事打击,推翻了阿富汗的塔利班政权。美国特种部队、势不可挡的空中力量以及当地军阀多管齐下,在数周内就推翻了塔利班政权。尽管以毛拉•奥马尔(Mullah Omar)和他的代言人本•拉登为首的领导人均得以逃脱,但基地组织网络遭到了无情的打击和破坏。

Within a year, the US had lost the moral high ground. Mr Bush’s error was to make clear that regime change in Iraq was only one step for dealing with what he described as an “axis of evil” including Iran, North Korea and potentially other adversaries suspected of harbouring or sponsoring terrorists. Overnight, the US was cast as a rogue nation.

但不出一年,美国就失去了道德高地。布什的失误在于让人们看清楚:伊拉克的政权更迭,只是布什用以对付被他列为“邪恶轴心国家”(包括伊朗、朝鲜以及其它窝藏或资助恐怖分子的敌对国家)的一个步骤。转眼间,美国自己也被视为一个流氓国家。

Concerns rose with the publication of a revised national security doctrine in 2002, which ditched cold war concepts of containment and deterrence. In their place came a “forward-leaning” strategy of pre-emptive military action, regime change, and a new kind of warfare that justified torture and denied the rights of the Geneva Convention to suspected terrorists.

美国2002年颁布的《国家安全法案修正案》引发了各界担忧。该法案摒弃了冷战时期的遏制和威慑战略,取而代之的是一种“先发制人”的战略。根据新战略,美国可以先发制人地采取军事行动,推翻政权,并允许在战争中使用酷刑,并否认《日内瓦公约》(Geneva Convention)赋予恐怖分子嫌犯的权力。

Thus the Iraq war was fought without the support of traditional allies such as Canada, France and Germany; without the backing of the UN Security Council; and without conclusive evidence that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction posing an immediate threat to the US. As for allies, Britain’s prime minister Tony Blair provided loyal political cover, though Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, declared witheringly that UK forces were redundant in military terms.

因此,伊拉克战争未能得到加拿大、法国和德国等传统盟友的支持;没有联合国安理会(UN Security Council)的支持;也未能找到确凿的证据,证明萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)拥有对美国安全构成直接威胁的大规模杀伤性武器。至于盟友,当时的英国首相托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)给予了布什忠诚的政治援助,不过时任美国国防部长唐纳德•拉姆斯菲尔德(Donald Rumsfeld)令人难堪地宣称:从军事角度讲,英国军队纯属多余。

Nato, having for the first time invoked article five to commit all members to collective defence, was similarly sidelined. Washington’s motto was “the mission determines the coalition”. But selective alliances work both ways. By the end of the decade, European allies were using caveats to opt out of military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. Hence outgoing US defence secretary Bob Gates’ warning this year that Nato was fast becoming irrelevant.

北约的影响力同样也有所削弱——9.11事件后,北约首次援引第五条款,要求所有成员国承担起集体防御的义务。美国政府的格言是“任务决定同盟”。但有选择性的同盟关系是一把双刃剑。临近2010年之际,欧洲盟国们开始引用限制性条款,表示不插手阿富汗、伊拉克和利比亚的军事行动。为此,即将卸任的现任美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨(Robert Gates)今年警告称,北约正迅速变得无关紧要。

Europe, too, emerged much diminished – and not just during the Libyan conflict where Germany opted out and Britain and France ran short of munitions within weeks. At the beginning of the new century, flush with the success of launching a new monetary union, Europe’s leaders agreed plans to make the European Union the most competitive economic zone in the world. In retrospect, the much-vaunted Lisbon agenda marked the summit of ambitions coinciding with the bursting of the dotcom bubble.

欧洲的声望也同样大幅下降,而这不仅仅体现在利比亚冲突期间——其间,德国选择置身事外,而英法两国在短短几周内就打光了弹药。本世纪之初,带着成功推出一个新货币联盟的喜悦,欧洲领导人就创立旨在让欧盟发展成为全球最具竞争力的经济区的《里斯本议程》达成了一致。事后看来,备受吹捧的里斯本议程标志着欧洲雄心的极限高度,而时间恰恰赶上了互联网泡沫的破裂。

Ten years on, the original design of European monetary union has shown itself to be fundamentally flawed. The enforcement mechanisms for budgetary discipline were ignored by big and smaller members alike, including Germany; peripheral economies in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which soared on the back of low interest rates, have been exposed as uncompetitive. Contagion in the bond markets now threatens to spread to Italy, a “core” eurozone member.

10年过去了,事实已经表明,欧洲货币联盟(European Monetary Union)最初的设计上就存在根本性缺陷。包括德国在内的大小成员国,都无视预算纪律的实施机制;而希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙等外围经济体,凭借低利率而实现了急剧增长,却一直存在缺乏竞争力的问题。眼下,债券市场危机有可能蔓延到欧元区“核心”成员意大利。

By Mr Bush’s second term, abrasive rhetoric gave way to a more tempered approach. As an occupation force in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US became sucked into the nation-building that Mr Rumsfeld had long derided. In a similar confusion, President Barack Obama and David Cameron, UK prime minister, declared either one or both of these missions to be militarily vital and then acted as if they were discretionary by setting a (political) timetable for withdrawal.

到了布什的第二任期,强硬的措辞转变为一种更为温和的方式。作为阿富汗和伊拉克的占领军,美国陷入了拉姆斯菲尔德长期以来嗤之以鼻的国家建设中。美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)也同样糊里糊涂,宣称在上述两国(或其中一国)的使命在军事上至关重要,然后表现得好像自己有权任意处置一样,制定了撤军的(政治)时间表。

The accountants will tot up the collective bill for the Afghan and Iraq ventures at close to $2,000bn in inflation-adjusted terms; but Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank and a former deputy US secretary of state, argues that a country as rich as the US can well afford the cost. In 1948, says Mr Zoellick, the average gross national product per head in the US was one quarter of where it stands today. Yet Americans readily supported President Truman’s doctrine to prop up democracies in Europe and counter communism around the world to the tune of billions of dollars.

经通胀因素调整后,在阿富汗和伊拉克的军费开支总计接近2万亿美元;但世界银行(World Bank)行长罗伯特•佐立克(Robert Zoellick)和一位前美国副国务卿认为,像美国这样富有的国家完全承担得起。佐立克称,在1948年,美国人均国民生产总值仅为目前的四分之一。但美国民众积极支持时任总统杜鲁门(Truman)的主张,即资助欧洲的民主运动,以及在全球范围内抗击共产主义,为此付出的金额高达数十亿美元。

Whether the seeds of democratic transformation will take root in Iraq is more debatable. The much-vaunted US military “surge” rescued the country from chaos and possible break-up, but relations between Iraq’s ethnic groups – Kurds, Sunnis and the majority Shia – remain precarious. Arguably, the toppling of Saddam Hussein has allowed Iran to become the dominant regional power, exerting influence through the Shia government in Baghdad. Meanwhile, Tehran’s nuclear ambitions remain unchecked.

民主改革的种子能否在伊拉克生根发芽,是一个更值得讨论的问题。美军自诩凭借“大举增兵”把伊拉克从动荡甚至分裂中拯救出来,但伊拉克宗教派系——库尔德人(Kurds)、逊尼派(Sunnis)和占多数的什叶派(Shia)——之间的关系仍然摇摆不定。或许,萨达姆•侯赛因的倒台使伊朗成为了地区霸主,并通过巴格达的什叶派政府施加影响力。同时,德黑兰方面的核野心仍未受到遏制。

Nor did 9/11 boost efforts to tackle the other serious and unresolved threat to regional stability: the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Both Mr Bush and Mr Obama have failed to break the deadlock over the occupied territories of Gaza and the West Bank, and the status of Jerusalem. Successive Israeli prime ministers from Ariel Sharon to Benjamin Netanyahu have turned the war on terror to their own advantage, arguing that concessions jeopardise Israel’s security and entities such as Hamas – which easily won elections in Gaza in 2005 – are terrorists masquerading as legitimate representatives of the Palestinians.

对于威胁到地区稳定的另一个悬而未决的严重问题,9.11事件也未能促成其解决:巴以冲突。布什和奥巴马都未能打破被占领的加沙及约旦河西岸地区的僵局,也没能解决耶路撒冷的地位问题。从阿里埃勒•沙龙(Ariel Sharon)到本杰明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)的一系列以色列总理,都利用这场反恐战争谋求自己的利益,声称妥协会危害以色列的安全,而哈马斯(Hamas)这样的组织,是伪装成巴勒斯坦人民合法代表的恐怖主义分子。哈马斯在2005年选举中轻松胜出。

Despite the focus on fighting terrorism, the US was still alert to broader geopolitical trends. The most important breakthrough took place between the US and India with the signing in 2008 of the“123” deal on civil nuclear co-operation. The new strategic partnership between Washington and New Delhi not only offers a counterweight to the rise of China, but also to nuclear-armed Pakistan, America’s long-time but increasingly unmanageable ally in South Asia.

虽然重点放在打击恐怖主义,但美国对更广泛的地缘政治趋势也保持着警惕。最重要的突破,是美国和印度在2008年签订了关于民用核合作的“123”协议。华盛顿和新德里之间的新战略伙伴关系不但可以制衡中国的崛起,也可以制衡拥有核武器的巴基斯坦,后者是美国长期以来在南亚的盟友,但已经变得越来越难以掌控。

By contrast, Sino-US relations amount to not much more than an uneasy accommodation. Beijing sees Washington (at best) as “neither friend nor enemy”, while the US has belatedly woken up to China’s challenge to its dominance in the Pacific. Beijing has grudgingly applied pressure to its brooding nuclear neighbour in North Korea, but nationalist fervour means the leadership remains neuralgic over Taiwan and acutely sensitive to territorial disputes with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam.

相比之下,中美关系只能算是一种不那么舒服的互相容忍。北京方面(顶多)把华盛顿看作“非敌非友”,美国则大梦初醒地意识到,中国在太平洋地区对其主宰地位构成了挑战。北京方面对拥有核武器的阴沉邻国——朝鲜——不情不愿地施加压力,但同时对民族主义热情颇高,这表明中国领导人对台湾问题仍耿耿于怀,并且在与日本、韩国和越南等过的领土争端中极度敏感。

In the final resort, the most significant geopolitical development of the past 10 years took place not on the battlefield but in the financial system. The global banking crisis stemmed from flawed regulation and perverse incentives for banks to sell mortgages to poor Americans with no ability to repay, as well as gigantic leverage in the financial system. These distortions were created, in part, by global imbalances driven by Americans living on cheap credit and Chinese exporters and savers contributing to a vast current account surplus.

说到最后,过去10年地缘政治方面最重要的进展并非发生在战场上,而是发生在金融体系中。全球银行业危机的起因,是监管存在漏洞,银行遏制不住向不具备偿还能力的美国穷人发放抵押贷款的冲动,以及金融系统中杠杆泛滥。一定程度上,这些扭曲现象是由全球发展失衡所导致的,而美国人靠低成本举债生活、中国出口商和储户促成巨额经常账户盈余,正是这种失衡背后的驱动因素。

Until the Great Crash of 2008, this financial merry-go-round spun regardless. Thanks to cheap labour costs, China exported deflation to the rest of the world. China financed the US current account deficit by recycling its own surplus into US Treasury bonds. Now, three years into the financial crisis, the world economy has been turned upside down. The US is diminished, Europe sidelined, and Asia, for now, in the ascendant.

直到2008年大崩盘(Great Crash)之前,这架金融旋转木马都在毫无顾忌地转动着。凭借其廉价的劳动力,中国向世界其他国家输出了通缩。中国用经常账户盈余购买美国国债,以这种方式为美国的经常账户赤字提供融资。目前,距离金融危机爆发已经三年,全球经济发生了天翻地覆的变化。美国经济走上了下坡路,欧洲丧失了“比赛资格”,而亚洲则暂时处于上升趋势。

Consider the broader historical trend. Developing Asia’s share of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms has risen steadily from 8 per cent in 1980 to 24 per cent last year. Taken as a whole, Asian stock markets now account for 31 per cent of global market capitalisation, ahead of Europe at 25 per cent and within a whisker of the US at 32 per cent. Last year, China overtook Germany to become the world’s largest exporter. Chinese banks now rank among the biggest in the world by market capitalisation.

我们不妨看一看更广泛的历史趋势。以购买力平价衡量,发展中亚洲占全球经济的份额,已经从1980年的8%稳步升至去年的24%。加总起来,亚洲股市占全球股市市值的31%,高于欧洲的25%,与美国的32%仅一步之遥。去年,中国取代德国成为全球最大出口国。以市值衡量,中资银行位居全球最大银行之列。

Import numbers are equally revealing: the developing world is becoming a driver of the global economy. From the consumption of cement to eggs, China leads the world; it has also just overtaken US to become the world’s largest market for cars.

进口数据同样说明问题:发展中国家正成为全球经济的驱动器。从水泥到鸡蛋,中国的消费量都位居世界前列;中国还刚刚取代美国、成为全球最大的汽车市场。

China’s voracious appetite for commodities is creating new trade routes, especially with emerging powerhouses such as Brazil. Last year, China surpassed the US as Brazil’s biggest trading partner. Latin America, a region once best known for instability, has emerged through the crisis virtually unscathed. Poverty is falling, the middle classes are expanding and asset markets are bubbling.

中国对各种商品的巨大胃口,正创造出新的贸易线路,尤其是和巴西这样的新兴大国。去年,中国超过美国,成为巴西最大的贸易伙伴。拉丁美洲曾以不稳定而闻名,但在此次危机中却毫发未损。目前该地区贫困率不断下降,中产阶级日渐扩大,资产市场也蒸蒸日上。

Condoleezza Rice, Mr Bush’s national security adviser and secretary of state, once described multi-polarity as a theory of rivalry, a necessary evil. In economic terms, multi-polarity spells a new order in which interdependence is the norm and the US, while still overwhelmingly powerful, no longer occupies the role of hegemon.

布什的国家安全顾问及国务卿康多莉扎•赖斯(Condoleezza Rice)曾把多极化称之为竞争理论,指其为必然的灾祸。从经济角度看,多极化意味着一种新秩序,在这种秩序中,相互依存成为基本原则,而美国尽管仍占据压倒性的优势,却不再享有霸权。

As for the legacy of 9/11, Gerard Lyons, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank, says the three most important words in the past decade were not “war on terror” but “made in China”. On present trends, he adds, the three most important words of this decade will be “owned by China”.

在谈到9.11事件的遗产时,渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)首席经济学家杰拉德•莱昂斯(Gerard Lyons)认为,过去10年最重要的词汇不是“反恐战争”,而是“中国制造”。谈到当前的趋势,他补充表示,未来10年最重要的词汇将是“中国所有”。

 

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